R Phelps
Stronger In lead volunteer Tooting. #Rejoin
Donating to Ukraine since 2014.
Blue Wall destruction enjoyer
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- And saying Ukrainian and Hong Kong refugees have caused incalculable damage helps that how?
- This feels like a Polish election adjacent story that will hopefully go away after. Let's hope so.
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- ffs
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View full threadWell if you believe Francis Farrell Ukr is always in manpower crisis & on the edge of 'collapse' but yes I think the frontlines aren't going anywhere. But the contortions to keep trump onside have no guarantee of not blowing up at any point.
- Thursday is quite likely going to involve Trump forcing Ze to sit down with Lavrov, a humiliation that bodes ill for any terms, while the fighting carries on, everything Europe has tried to avoid. Or trump blowing up if ze refuses. Maybe not but it's riding a tiger if they can't sort a plan b.
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- I just doubt we'll see what we saw in Aus, units disbanded etc.
- Deeply disturbing and demands accountability, not cover ups. “Giving their accounts publicly for the first time, the veterans described seeing members of the SAS murder unarmed people in their sleep and execute handcuffed detainees, including children.” www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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- Grim but utterly unsurprising after Aus. Will we see similar response (doubt).
- Back in Feb we were all saying 'the Euro leaders must be preparing a plan B while they keep Trump on side' and...I'm still not convinced unfortunately. They've just caved twice after threatening more sanctions.
- Lead headline on BBC Politics Live: “Prime Minister accused of echoing far right language.” Was/is this the Downing Street comms goal in framing their immigration reform? If so, how is this helpful? If not, how has this happened?
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- Ah ok thanks
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- Wasn't incalculable damage in the White paper??
- There are lots of good arguments against Labour's move on immigration (eg it is immoral) but a bad one is "you can't outflank the Tories/Reform on the right. And McSweeney, who I don't think is a genius, is right about that. /1
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- True, but if this becomes a 'citizens of nowhere' moment then, like Labour in 2019 it might be unable to squeeze those voters in seats vs Tories/Reform.
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- Tesla numbers
- All of this.
- I think this sums up the strategic errors made by Starmer's Labour machine quite well
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View full threadI think the government risks ending up close to 'worst of all worlds' outcome where the rhetorical wrapping ends up alienating some of its own voters and where the policies do impose real costs (social care) without reducing headline migration sufficiently to win over more migration sceptic voters
- Yes, think you're right. They might have got lucky with lower interest rates and oil but McSweeney seems determined to crush any chance of growth while repelling everyone in every direction.
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- So far it looks like LD voters could be relied upon to keep up a republican front but green voters (probably ex-Corbynites) not. This is the sort of 'citizens of nowhere' rhetoric that could put the LD voters in the other camp.
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- Will it though?
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- I agree some ground has to be given but rhetoric and facts both matter. 'Incalculable damage' could really damage lives as well as repel voters, and calling Ukr & HK refugees economic migrants & denying the trade offs from reduced immigration all show totally muddled thinking & degrade the debate.
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- Wow, some honest to god good news.
- Ukrainian refugees and Hong Kongers fleeing China's crackdown are a 'squalid experiment' is it?
- Starmer is going to have a 'citizens of nowhere' moment soon.
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- Like hell this is what people voted for. Labour it dragging us to disaster if this is how they think.
- Direct peace talks: a possibility? open.substack.com/pub/profradc.... In this substack, I discuss the likelihood of direct Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, some of the core issues that separate the two sides, and what we are to expect in coming months. [Free].
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View full threadThis is implied in the post, which also discusses whether the previous Istanbul talks were just a time-wasting maneuver on Putin's part. As for the current proposal, here's what I actually argue in the post.
- Yes, good point on the composition. Ukraine seems to have been able to hold the line on a ceasefire first though, feels to me like they've now got the even more US on side, and if Ukr has to agree to the talks before that it'll be a sign of weakness
- You were waiting for part 2, weren't you. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state.... Here with Sam Charap. Reflections on Istanbul three years on, and whether we have learned anything (the answer is yes).
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View full threadThis need not mean that worries about NATO's enlargement was the only reason Russia invaded Ukraine. Other (documentable) reasons include Putin's imperialistic propensities (which is actually a related reason), and the desire to "put Kyiv in its place".
- You can believe concern about NATO was a reason, without thinking it was a major reason. Putin's own tract on Russia & Ukraine is genocidal in nature and barely mentions NATO. Flattening all reasons to equal bullet points can end end misinforming in its own way.
- Just to preview the argument.
- Seems surprising not to at least give intellectual room to the idea this is just putin playing for time refusing a ceasefire and seeking to split the international coalition.
- At least we have four years to prepare for Farage as best we can I suppose.
- Some growth between now and 2029 would have been nice but oh well.
- This. The Oval Office blow up may have helped by strengthening Ze's position at home. Powell may have also played a blinder too if the spin has any substance to it.
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- They don't like it up em, diplomatic version.
- Evergreen (to the country's great detriment)
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- Interesting piece on Chinese military tech in the Pakistan-India conflict. on.ft.com/4kcgphp China’s J-10 ‘Dragon’ shows teeth in India-Pakistan combat debut
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- The West getting its hands on the PL-15 will help combat them too.
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- The Noah Davis exhibition at the Barbican is great. Go before it shuts Sunday.
- Last year I was involved in designing a series of crisis scenarios and wanted to include Orbán moving on Transcarpathia. It was left out because it was felt to be going too far to be plausible. Apparently it's not.
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- Not seen that discussed before today tbh. Interesting to review EU Commission decision making in light of it.
- This is very good by @drjademcglynn.bsky.social on the use and abuse of WW2 memory smalldeedsbigwar.substack.com/p/19-to-1945
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- Green Party leadership frontrunner Zack Polanski tells me the UK must now end its membership of NATO, because of Trump. Polanski says that Trump's presidency means the "Age of NATO is over" and his party should now abandon its commitment to the alliance bylinetimes.com/2025/05/08/g...
- V interesting thread. During an office move 10years ago I dug out from the back of draws & filing cabinets a bunch of documents from the 70s & 80s detailing some of these tax dodges. Giving directors gold bars and fine wines to sell on as remuneration!
- And continues to be a must-listen!
- So we're making concessions to remove some US tariffs that didn't even exist a month ago, while the universal 10% tariff remains. Dunno, doesn't seem great. Wonder if the EU by being united will get a better deal down the line.
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- And while Trump is doing very brexity things in the US.
- Total waste of an opportunity to get on the front foot at home and with the EU.
- "The government appears to have changed its position on a youth mobility scheme with the EU, after previously ruling it out". www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/poli...
- Under 1 year to Europe seeing this guy gone, no way they're going to give him a cent.
- Last night really showed that Saab 2000 ‘Erieye’ AEW&C Aircraft are lethal. Pakistani Air Force operates four Erieyes and managed to inflict serious and humiliating losses to Indian Air Force. That can only happen when you have excellent overall visibility of the battlespace.
- Soon Ukraine gets the earlier version, the better
- It’s possible the new Conservative Party wanted a trade deal with India - or perhaps a hypothetical India - more in theory than practice
- Curious leader. The deal is good but Labour is bad so who can say?
- Ultimate 'Power Without Responsibility' example.
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- 1,000 drone raid when?
