Sunder Katwala (sundersays)
Director of @britishfuture.bsky.social
Author How to be a Patriot harpercollins.co.uk/products/how-to-be-…
Evertonian
- A Migration Advisory Committee explainer on net migration trends & policy options. MAC thinks net migration is heading towards 300k on current policies. Population falls if inflow is < 120k and rises when > 120k (as deaths > births gap) www.gov.uk/government/p...
- There is much concern among universities about a levy on international student fees: an unexpected part of white paper on which the Treasury will consult. This is cutting across the relief about the government's bark being enormously worse than its bite on international students & post-study work
- Government seems to be planning a tax on international students (from the immigration white paper). How many universities will this tip over the edge?
- If it happens, I suspect a levy on international student fees would be a bit like a tariff. Say the levy was 5%, then fees at £10,000 would go up to £10,500. That could raise roughly £500 million. Unis should be v interested in arguing the £ should be hypothecated to them (to access)
- PM should speak about contact/integration - but "island of strangers" polarises where he should bridge. In long-run, Britain has best social relationships in Europe between migrants/children of migrants + prior residents. But there is higher anxiety about this esp in places with fewer migrants
- One thing that seems clear from the media questions that the fall in immigration - down a third in 2024, so net migration will be down a few hundred thousand - seems unknown to several of the lobby, never mind their readers, listeners or viewers
- This is an esp bad example of the BBC coverage of immigration leaving out the central fact for public understanding It omits the current evidence on what the level of immigration is (while reporting political claims that make no sense without the fact too) www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
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- Shadow Home Sec Chris Philip did say that projections of net migration are 300-350k in his interview (saying he could go lower with future policy). He is clearer on facts in his live interview than this garbled BBC online report (which did not give the fall in immigration/) x.com/BBCPolitics/...
- On LBC News, their second rolling news channel, in a minute to talk about what we know about the immigration white paper so far
- An important nuance here: ending the specific visa for care workers is being communicated and reported as "no more foreign care workers", but it looks as if foreign care workers could still be admitted, but subject to the more restrictive general rules
- Home Sec told BBC would renew+extend care visas for those here.+ try to recruit 10k people on care visas not in the sector (?) Then in similar position to others I understand Streeting confident about workforce needs being met: may want to catalyses the moves needed on funding, pay, training?
- UK immigration debate needs to drop the numbers game. - Labour's task is balancing public appetite for control with the party's other policy goals My Financial Times op-ed preview of the white paper is online here (for those who have FT access) and in the paper tomorrow. www.ft.com/content/0e1f...
- 'Immigration has actually fallen by around a third since the Labour party won the election last July. But that seems to be the best-kept secret in Britain'. 460,000 fewer visas were issued in 2024 than 2023. But with UK asylum claims rising by 25,000, the bigger overall fall has gone unnoticed'
