Chad Skelton
Instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University in Vancouver, Canada. Data journalist. Nerd for hire: charts, maps, Tableau training. Past: Vancouver Sun he/him cskeltondata@gmail.com chadskelton.com
- My latest AI video: How to Create a ChatGPT Tutor Bot (and Quiz Bot!) for your students using Custom GPTs. www.youtube.com/watch?v=nerO...
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- I'm calling it a night but I see (at least) two possible scenarios in the final count: 1. The closest races are mainly ones where the Libs are leading. That means their seat count is more vulnerable. 2. If they count advance polls last and those tilt left, Libs could strengthen their position.
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- Lib (165) + NDP (7) has a razor thin 172-seat majority at the moment. I'd guess there's a good chance that won't hold. Significantly more of the Liberal seat count is 'leading' rather than elected compared to Conservatives. A decent risk Liberal count will go down before the night is over.
- Overall, Liberals did worse than expected based on the polls. But this post of mine from earlier today on my own riding aged pretty well. 😀
- CBC site now saying Liberal Ernie Klassen is elected in South Surrey-White Rock. A flip from Conservative to Liberal.
- Been keeping an eye on Skeena-Bulkley Valley (BC). Amazing how much the NDP's margin of victory has narrowed from earlier in the night. Shows how poorly early results can predict final count.
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- Man, Kelowna really is a little red island in a sea of blue in the B.C. Interior.
- Pierre Polievre being behind in his own riding of Carleton seemed like a fluke with only a few polls reporting. But we're now at 50/266 polls and he's still in second. And the margin ain't all that close. Still hard to see him losing but this seems closer than people were expecting.
- Liberal Ernie Klassen has been consistently ahead in South Surrey-White Rock since counting began. But Conservative Kerry-Lynne Findlay just took the lead.
- Interesting: Conservatives have pulled ahead in Fleetwood-Port Kells in Surrey, B.C. Liberal MP Ken Hardie, who stepped down, won the last three elections. In 2021 by a pretty big margin of 45%-30% (46%-28% redistributed) 70/187 polls reporting.
- Globe and Mail election results site is more reliable than the CBC's for sure. But it's map projection is driving me kind of bonkers. Not used to seeing Metro Vancouver on an angle like this. CBC's map 'feels' more right to me.
- I'm giving up on the CBC election results site. Keeps stagnating on me, telling me it's updating when it's not. Over to The Globe and Mail instead. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/fed...
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- Jagmeet Singh in 3rd place in his riding at the moment. Only 15/200 reporting.
- I don't know who decided to give the fourth seat beside CBC's At Issue panel to a rotating political hack spouting party lines, but it suuuuucks. We should hear from political parties on election night, obviously. But we get that enough from the riding-by-riding interviews.
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- When NDP vote in a riding goes down and both Lib and Con vote goes up, TV commentators seem to assume the NDP support split between those two parties. Which... we have no way of knowing. Seems just as likely that a share of right-leaning Libs switched to Cons and NDP voters mainly went Lib.
- CBC election results page seems to be sputtering a bit, at least for me. Says it's updating but... it's not. Stuck at 9,142 polls reporting for the past 10 minutes and not showing some results they're showing on screen. Globe and Mail site more updated. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/fed...
- Reposted by Chad SkeltonLet this be a warning to you all: nobody steals my charts and gets to be Prime Minister of Canada
- Reposted by Chad SkeltonWith all sincerity, Elections Canada is a national treasure. - Voting typically takes less than 15 minutes - We make it easy for citizens to vote, without cumbersome registration hurdles - We have every reason to trust that ballots will be counted fairly, and results reported swiftly
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- Reposted by Chad SkeltonPlease note that if you use "prime minister elect" to refer to Mark Carney, a Canadian constitutional scholar will come to your home and smash your windows.
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- Probably no easy way around this. But showing a running popular vote total throughout election night (which CBC keeps showing) seems misleading in a country that basically becomes more Conservative the further West you get and counts its results East to West. No way Libs get 50%+ of the final vote
- It's always kind of fun when there are ~100 votes counted in a riding. The numbers and percentages are the same!
- Has anyone found an election results site that (easily) compares results in a particular riding to the results in 2021 (with new boundaries)? I spend a lot of time loading up Wikipedia to figure out the vote shift in different places.
- I really like the NYT's cartogram of Canadian election results, especially how they've highlighted Vancouver/Toronto/Montreal. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
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- Red=left-wing Blue=right-wing So says Canada, UK, New Zealand, Australia, Japan and probably others I can't think of right now. Like imperial vs. metric, it's the Americans who are weird. 😀
- Though this could be the election where the B.C. results really make a difference!* * claim made by B.C. politics junkies every federal election
- I know it makes it easier to read. But CBC’s bar-chart-but-not-quite-a-bar-chart drives me bananas.
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- One year I should do an analysis of how (not) predictive results with one poll reporting are of what the final results in a riding are.
- Conservatives are doing *quite* a lot better in some Atlantic Canadian ridings than the polls were projecting, based on @338canada.bsky.social Long Range Mountains in Newfoundland was projected as 48% Lib - 44% Con. Conservatives won it 52%-40%
- Still *very* early in the night, but Conservatives seem to be slightly outperforming projections in Atlantic Canada so far. @338canada.bsky.social @ericgrenier.bsky.social
- It's striking how less partisan Canadians are compared to Americans. Hard to imagine ever seeing a vote swing this dramatic in the U.S., where the Republican/Democratic shift each election is usually in the low single digits. I think it's healthy for our democracy. Keeps leaders on their toes.
