Steve Akehurst
Politics, policy, public attitudes. Work in polling and comms. Director, Persuasion UK. ex- Shelter, civil service and various other things. 🏳️🌈
persuasionuk.org/about
strongmessagehere.substack.com
- Reposted by Steve AkehurstInaccurate to say "Reform voters are our people". Many people who have never voted Labour. Many say never would. "Some Reform voters are engageable" Lab should be interested in sixth of its vote [5% of voters] were Labour 2024 & would consider Reform. Few Reform 2024 voters gettable, maybe 1/6 are
- Reposted by Steve AkehurstPeople have real problems believing Reform voters don't come from Labour, if not recently, then in the past. A small proportion do, but let's look at how far back you'd have to go now ...
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- Reposted by Steve AkehurstA under-discussed backdrop to yesterday's election results—Britain today feels less pleasant, well-maintained and orderly than a decade ago: from potholes to phone-snatchers. I've spent the past few months digging in to why for @economist.com. A short 🧵 on what I've concluded.
- Reposted by Steve AkehurstHow loud can Australian election sound? Albanese’s “social patriotism, proudly Australian but grounded in ord. people’s lives, open to all backgrounds, embraces government intervention in the market & recognises that injustices & inequalities hold us all back” @mds49.bsky.social spotlights the poss.
- Reposted by Steve AkehurstJust in case anyone thought supply chain cost pressures were unique to UK offshore wind… The head of US utility giant NextEra John Ketchum says gas-fired power costs have more than tripled since 2022, making renewable energy cheaper, according to Reuters 1/2
- Where has the Labour & Tory vote gone here? Labour 2024: Still Lab 47% Don’t know 14% Lib Dem 10% Reform 9% Greens 9% Will not vote 5% Con 3% SNP 1% Con 2024: Con 54% Reform 26% (!) DK 11% LD 3% Lab 2% Green 1% WNV 1% Put simply, this is how Farage becomes Prime Minister. But a long way to go.
- Reform UK record their highest ever poll rating in YouGov's latest Westminster voting intention, while the Tories and Labour are at their lowest since 2019 Ref: 29% (+3 from 27-28 Apr) Lab: 22% (-1) Con: 17% (-3) Lib Dem: 16% (+1) Green: 10% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
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- Looking at Mayoral polls of FindOutNow (one of more Reform friendly panels) tells you a lot about what's happening to 2024 Labour vote in these locals. It's disproportionately staying home. Those voting are flaking off in all directions, but mostly to left parties. A 🧵of each race:
- This seems like a very important graph - and thread - for understanding the results tonight and tomorrow. More than anything else local and by-elections are about differential turnout. Reform vote is very amped up right now, or seemingly anyway.
- Reposted by Steve AkehurstRecord heat today in England and Wales made at least 3x more likely by climate change, according to Climate Central. Mayday mayday
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- The thing is, Poilievre is actually a really good politician imo. Easily one of the best ‘New Right’ communicators. But he made one absolutely fatal mistake: getting too close to Trump. Sucked in by the online energy for him among his base. Many such cases!
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