Christopher Clary
Assistant Professor of Political Science, University at Albany; Nonresident Fellow, Stimson Center
- My chart of subjective conflict risks in South Asia over the last 40 years or so.
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- I make no promises about the future!
- My article from Sunday's Times of India on this new era in the India-Pakistan rivalry.
- I was really pleased to have a chance to talk to @gavinesler.bsky.social about the origins of the current crisis and where we might be headed.
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View full threadMany official handles still there…but that does not always address the reliability part
- X will always tell you 400% of what is happening. You just have to figure out the correct 100%.
- I’ll have to go back and revise the table. 15 days.
- I’m pleased to have had an opportunity to contribute to this edited volume ably pulled together by Zachary Davis assessing the legacy of track-1.5 and track-2 initiatives for the US-India, US-Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relationships. cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/f...
- The stand-off precision strike revolution is new. We don't have a huge dataset of what normal looks like in these tit-for-tat struggles. But based on the limited dataset that we do have, we are not out of the woods yet—and arguably are in the most dangerous part of the woods.
- I’m sure Trump’s sixth national security advisor will be the charm!
- I was happy to talk to Zia ur Rehman of the New York Times as he reported on what we know about Pakistani support for terrorism and militancy in Kashmir. www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/w...
- Dangerous days ahead in the subcontinent. I'm quite worried. My piece for @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/why-the...
- What I'm worried/thinking about today regarding developments in India and Pakistan.
- There are no US ambos in Pakistan or India (chargés in both). They report to assistant secy for South & Central Asia who has been nominated, but unconfirmed. He reports to under secretary for political affairs, also nominated but unconfirmed. DepSecState seems nice though.
- I've now re-posted a copy of my report for USIP last year on the 2021 Line of Control ceasefire. That 2021 ceasefire may also be a victim of yesterday's terror attack in Kashmir. (The USIP website was taken down along with USIP's demise.) www.christopherorenclary.com/uploads/3/9/...
- I suspect we are about to learn whether India has gotten better at standoff air strikes in the last six years since Balakot. (Though ending the 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control in Kashmir might be a less escalatory option.)
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- You might need to do something with tactical/theater forces that requires more movement/time than what you’d need to do to get strategic forces to a similar level of alertness. Different fuse lengths I could imagine.
- “It’s rare that in retrospect US foreign policy failures turn out to be the result of listening too carefully to area specialists.”
- Some thoughts on DOGE/the Trump administration's destruction of USIP, the Wilson Center, and home-grown social science/area studies expertise about the rest of the world: paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...
- In the last couple of years I've become increasingly worried India is not doing enough to deter China and to prepare to defeat China in a war if deterrence fails. I present my concerns in a new journal article out today in the Journal of Strategic Studies. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
- For those who are interested but are bumping against the Journal of Strategic Studies paywall, I've posted the article manuscript on my website. As always, feedback is welcome. www.christopherorenclary.com/uploads/3/9/...
- There's a lot going on in the world, but if you want my summary of the year that was in 2024 for India, it is available here (for free for the next 30 days). online.ucpress.edu/as/article/6...
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- Original story is here. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/w...
- USIP had amassed quite exceptional talent in several areas. I hope many can find a good home at other think tanks--it's a fire sale on talent now and a chance to create a team that will help America re-build in better times. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/29/u...
- Really good paragraph from Chris Twomey (in a 2021 volume) on how to think about the Chinese no-first-use (NFU) nuclear pledge. (Much of the same language applies to other NFUs).
- A look at Pakistan's no good, very bad year thus far. (Spoiler: Pakistan's relapse into low-level war continues to escalate.) goodauthority.org/news/pakista...
- You gotta kill 1.2 million kids to give a tax cut to Tesla. Its called ordo amoris.
- I'd be curious to see some reporting about whether members of the U.S. military think that it'll be hard to keep officers and enlisted from transmitting sensitive material over Signal given the fact that Cabinet-level officials are saying its fine.
- The Trump administration's (1) extended deterrence policy toward allies, (2) its pursuit of Golden Dome, and (3) its likely support of nuclear modernization (& likely nuclear expansion) don't really make sense together. (3) & probably (2) make sense if you care a lot about (1).
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- Looking at Canada, Denmark, and Panama: I think they have to worry about deterring us.
- The US is about to be broke if Trump gets his tax cuts (and lack of revenue because of decreased enforcement because of IRS cuts). That means we're gonna have to make hard budgetary choices. BMD and Sentinel ICBMs might be big juicy places to cut--esp. since Golden Dome is just notional anyway.
- It’s hardly the worst thing about this episode but snatching a Muslim off the street right before iftar during Ramadan is a way to make sure you get a person who is very hungry and thirsty from a full day of fasting.
- Video of the international student at Tufts being arrested by "federal authorities" in Massachusetts has been released and it's terrifying. They're not even uniformed officers. Just secret police thugs in hoodies and masks. From WCVB: youtu.be/PuFIs7OkzYY
- I’m seeing this interpretation a lot, but my read of this is that he’s saying in the first Principals Committee meeting (in-person), this argument was presented. Not that there is another WhatsApp chain called “PC” (which there might be but this text doesn’t provide evidence for one way or other).
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- I just heard “PCs” talked about a fair number of times while serving in government for a few years and this is my read of the text. I can’t rule out your interpretation though. No one was using Signal to talk about PCs during my time!
- Still would be good to get folks on the record in today’s hearing as to whether they were on other signal chains for other PC topics.
- Didn't expect the substantive mentions of India in the US intelligence global threat briefing to be just as much about being a source of fentanyl as any other topic. One sentence suggests "state actor" direct or indirect involvement.
- It's notable that no military member has been named as being part of the Signal chat. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee is a full member of the Principals Committee & I imagine some 3- or 4-star has been there in person. But perhaps not trusted on the chat?
- Going back & reading a 2021 speech by Admiral Charles Richard where he says China was undertaking a "strategic breakout." What does that mean? Well, Admiral Richard said—in the same speech—there was no real definition, but it was a big deal. Feel like his staff failed him here.
- The FOIA requests write themselves then…
- May still be some hangover in the bilateral relationship from a (prior?) period of more assertive Indian policy in Canada. (The Indian view is there is hangover in the relationship because Canada coddles, abets, & ignores anti-India radicals operating from Canadian soil.)
- In a normal admin this scandal would spin out for months. What other Signal chats had classified info? The phones would be examined, more classified info would be found. If anyone used Signal’s desktop app then those devices would be searched for classified info. (Note: This is not a normal admin.)
- "Many people convinced of lab leak instinctively gravitate toward blame & reparations, which is understandable but not necessarily productive." "Incredibly, 5 years after the crisis & there has be no change in biosafety regulation, none. That seems crazy."
- The US is pushing hard for more agricultural imports in India. The problem is agriculture is a huge employer in India and it's not easy to imagine the already stressed Indian labor market finding new jobs for displaced farmers.
- Waltz made a grave error in creating the chat and one that might cost him his job. But Hegseth appears to be the one that took the chat from its status as “unwise, probably classified” to “definitely 💯 classified” by putting details of impending strikes into the chat.
- US rejections of student visa applications at a ten-year high. This pattern emerged before Trump, it bears emphasis.
- The people the killed Laken Riley were criminals. The reason the US historically aims to provide due process is because governments shouldn’t behave like criminals.
- Much of what the Trump administration is doing is unprecedented. But telling allies they must fend for themselves is not altogether new. @nicholas-miller.bsky.social looks at the case of Nixon with Asian allies. The result: many allies pondered getting nukes. foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/20/n...
- Honestly didn’t see this plot twist coming!
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- I think of these specific complaints as helping give examples about why his influence is dangerous. You can talk about that in the abstract or you can use specific cases. I don’t see why we have to stop making the specific cases just because the general case was not initially persuasive.
- Let’s imagine there was an alcoholic who isn’t getting better and isn’t seeking treatment. I might object to my school district hiring him but I might REALLY object to them making him a bus driver. So yes the problem is with the man but I think okay to complain more about some things than others.
- I’m just a simple man but I like car companies that don’t need to be propped up by the threat of enslavement.
