Tariffs seem unlikely to solve the specific geographic problems created by trade, which is really the political genesis of the issue. Why would steel mills or auto plants return (if they do) to the now closed and likely dilapidated factories and towns where they once existed? 1/4

In many cases, it could be easier to rebuild in new areas, especially if those old factory town have lost population and infrastructure. And if factories come back, there will be far more automation, as the administration has acknowledged, meaning a limited employment impact. 2/4

Jobs would likely return outside of unions, which are what made manufacturing a ticket to the middle class. If you think about tariffs, at least in part, as a giant welfare plan for regions hurt by trade, which has propelled the issue politically, they are poorly targeted, a crap shoot at best.3/4

I don’t know if direct subsidies for a specific industry in a specific city would be a more efficient use of taxes. But it would sure beat taxing everyone for all imports. The economic problems in these regions are real and have been poorly addressed. Tariffs seem an unlikely solution 4/4