More R incumbents are up than Ds, in a year when people are likely mad at Rs. The reverse would be a "bad map for Ds" The *Senate* is bad for Ds. And Cook likes to predict R wins, more than other raters www.270towin.com/2026-senate-...

I really don't understand why the map is always bad for dems, seriously, it's always an uphill battle!

I dont think the senate map has ever not sucked

Way too pessimistic from the Dem viewpoint. Half those red states could flip in a few weeks.

In Australia, we realised there are no safe seats if things continue in the wrong direction for long enough. In three months your current guy has tanked your economy and is deporting citizens. Don't lose hope.

OK what am I missing? This is a great map! Every red state is a potential pickup—ME, NC, OH are all great opportunities and the deportation debacle could even turn TX and FL blue. The biggest challenge is holding GA but if MTG gets the nom it gets way easier.

Glass half full: if the tariffs do what everyone thinks they will do, this map presents an incredible opportunity to lock in 6-year wins in TX, FL, IA, NE, KS...

The Senate map is ALWAYS bad for Dems because the Senate is a structurally biased, grotesquely unrepresentative body.

Think about what this map looks like with the 15 point swing we saw in the special elections.

Ain't the dirty south for nothin...

Yeah it's gonna be an ugly fight.

Well that’s depressing. Fuck.

It's funny, really. I'd swear I no longer had any expectations from american people whatsoever. And yet they are able to consistantly dissapoint over and over again every single time. It's almost inspirational.

Michigan being a tossup is kinda depressing considering Flint, yknow that whole town the Republicans gave lead poisoning, which is still the main thing I think of whenever Michigan is mentioned

MN solid Dem. Craig will take it and likely pretty easily.

somehow every election year is a terrible senate year for dems

I don’t think I’ve lived through an election where the senate map didn’t suck. It’s a feature.

Think of it as a large attack surface with lots of opportunities