Madeleine Sumption
Director of Migration Observatory @ University of Oxford. I research migration policy, mostly in the UK
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- We are tiptoeing into a world of having actual data on econ outcomes of people on visas. Exciting times
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- Reposted by Madeleine SumptionNew work visa data show little change in application numbers between March and April. Health and care apps have settled at 1.7k per month, around half the level of non-healthcare applications (main apps only). Quite the change from 2023, when there were around 13,000 H&C applications per month!
- Asylum accommodation has shifted a lot over the last 6 years. More hotels but also much higher share in London & SE than under the previous dispersal policy See our new briefing on asylum accommodation for the background migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...
- Reposted by Madeleine SumptionBBC Projected National Share (PNS) share of the local election vote: Con 15 Lab 20 LD 17 Green 11 Reform 30
- Also Home Office can’t order ONS to pretend that people aren’t actually here
- Calling migration data nerds: ONS needs you! Vacancies on 2 committees: advisory panel on migration stats, and a technical advisory panel on methods for producing migration data Details on both panels here - deadline 5th May Apply to either/both uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/news/announc...
- My take on whether it's sensible for the government to release more data on non-UK citizens who commit crimes TLDR: yes. It's become a big part of public debate, and insufficient data fuels unnecessary speculation about what the facts *might* be www.lbc.co.uk/opinion/view...
- Interesting piece from a GP working in an asylum hotel shows why the experience of asylum seekers is so complex & doesn't neatly fit the stereotypes in public debate (Assume author didn't choose the headline, which doesn't really reflect the article's content) www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04...
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- New stats from Home Office: 37% of 2024 asylum applicants arrived on a visa, slightly more than on small boats The remaining 31% will presumably have arrived on other clandestine routes (e.g. lorry), at port/airport with fraudulent docs or via Ireland ...
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- Interesting paper on migration & UK training after EU enlargement ➤Migration ➔big drop in formal employer training but only of "less valuable" NVQs, not apprenticeships ➤Bigger impact on older workers &low-skilled jobs ➤economic effect "not likely to be great" due to training/worker groups affected
- Useful new HMRC data on earnings by nationality, though what we really need is data by immigration status Earnings differences will often reflect people's visa route: family, asylum, skilled worker, etc Eg Pakistan/Bangladesh has more family migrants, Philippines more skilled workers
- Totally fascinating discussion about how genetics and people's decisions to marry people very similar to themselves shapes social mobility conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/gre...
- Really striking illustration of the changes in the migrant workforce post-Brexit
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- New data on skilled worker/health & care visas Will be interesting to see if yesterday's move to make employers look for care workers in-country first (esp those laid off by sponsors with revoked licenses) affects numbers coming from abroad - hard to predict whether this'll have an impact & how big
- New data answers puzzle of why skilled worker visa applications didn't decrease much despite higher salary thresholds: *grants* are down much more Applications: down 24% in July-Dec Grants: down 42% Refusals & withdrawn: up 58% Q: will this be temporary blip as employers adjust to new rules?
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- Trump has proposed selling green cards US is basically already selling green cards by getting "investors" to lose some money on investments with below-market rates. It's less controversial only because it doesn't *look* like a naked transaction From my forthcoming book chapter:
- Fascinating if niche article for immigration nerds - why pet-sitting arrangements violate the immigration rules freemovement.org.uk/housesitters...
- Reposted by Madeleine SumptionNEW: updated long-run gap in voting between young men and women in Germany: Gender divide continues to widen, but contrary to what is often assumed, young men continue to vote roughly in line with the overall population, while young women have swung sharply left. www.ft.com/content/29fd...
- If you fill in our survey we will reward you with… um… lasting gratitude? A warm fuzzy feeling of having been helpful?
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- Please do fill out our extremely short survey. It will take you about as long as you need to boil a kettle. Well - an American kettle, for sure. Maybe also a British one if you're really efficient or you're one of those people who fills it to the top even though you're only making one cup of tea
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- Interesting how little the number of skilled worker visas outside of health & care have fallen since Spring 2024, given substantial hike in salary thresholds Applications down 21% in May 2024-Jan 2025, compared to same period a year before
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- New proposals from Policy Exchange for restricting work and study visas
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