this finding, here laid out by @lakshya.splitticket.org, is what I just can't get past when you look for Democrats who run ahead of the national ticket you keep finding people with a grab bag of semi-coherent moderate views and very few with coherent left-lib views split-ticket.org/2025/03/17/a...

This article is informative, but what is actually says is that being supported by a moderate caucus is correlated with electoral success, while voting record is not for Democrats. That disconnect makes it fuzzy what about being supported by a moderate caucus is connected to more votes.

it's saying that the model of ideology by voting record is very messy, especially over the sample of just a term or two, and models based on that will struggle to find effects because their measure is not grasping ideology well

I do think it's absolutely the case that there are ways to build a pretty good, even great voting record while being cranky enough in attention getting ways to be perceived as moderate Pre-2017 Bernie was the king of this

I am not well versed in this, but the big questions to me are do Moderate Caucuses select for electability to win in swing areas over all else, while other Caucuses select for ideology, and what informs voters perceptions of moderation. The answers to both would help give meaning to these results.