- Six weeks ago I predicted a very negative March jobs report. That report comes out Friday. I no longer think that we will see massive job losses in that report. I still think a recession is coming (and the markets seem finally to be coming to agree with that), but not as quickly as I first thought.
- There are two reasons we won't see the anticipated big federal job losses in March: 1) When workers have been fired, they haven't necessarily been removed from payroll immediately. Some have been paid out for a couple of months. Those still count as jobs. 2) Judges have reversed many firings.Apr 3, 2025 03:39
- I think the same has probably happened with federal contractor layoffs - people are getting at least a bit of warning, which kept them on the payroll through early March and thus in the March job counts. Those jobs will be lost eventually, but they won't be counted yet.
- I should add that @marthagimbel.bsky.social, in particular, objected to my earlier claim. I owe her a dinner as a result of her prescience.
