Jim Whittington🔥
Retired BLM/NPS/USFS - Courtesy faculty with Oregon State's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences. Interested in wildland fire, incident management, climate change, history, public health, & crisis comms. Texas expat. Birthday: 318.51
- In the same area as the Wallow Fire back in 2011. Beautiful area and not a good sign that this is so active in mid-May. Makes me worry about June in the SW.
- "Moving people around" to minimally cover for lost hurricane expertise means less precise hurricane forecasts and the NWS offices that deal with tornadoes, floods, and wildfires will be even more diminished as staff move. All of NWS is breaking by the minute and this whole thing is untenable.
- The National Weather Service seeks to fill 155 "critical" vacancies ahead of Hurricane Season, through internal transfers between offices. The step illustrates how depleted the agency's ranks are at particular posts around the U.S. www.cnn.com/2025/05/14/w...
- We map tsunami zones and flood zones. We have volcanoes. People still buy/build in and around those areas. A state-level fire map meant to inform should be no different--the insurance companies already have similar info. Ignoring risk does not remove the risk. (Of course, there's mis/dis info.)
- [Not loaded yet]
- Well, I retired a few years ago, so all signs point to yes.
- [Not loaded yet]
- Agreed. Pols always fall towards reassurance, but in this case, they should point out the reality and trust the public with not great news. Folks need to make plans now for what might be—telling them it will be business as usual is a disservice.
- Yesterday, the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook showed us the first glimpse of August & it is not pretty. Neither is July. As for June, it looks rough in the SW. This, with diminished federal response capacity & who knows what with FEMA. Buckle up--you're probably on your own.
- [Not loaded yet]
- Nope. Wildland firefighters aren’t soldiers in a culture war. We serve communities, not politicians. We are Rs, Ds, and Is and we put all that aside to serve. What you are suggesting is against our ethics and professional responsibility.
- And now Landsat? Ugh.
- [Not loaded yet]
- For a few seconds, I was looking for the other two posts of this thread. Yeesh.
- The maps support an analysis that consolidates outlooks from the 10 geographic areas and includes info from NOAA CPC on climate outlooks and ENSO, USDA/NOAA drought data, and various other data sources. You can read the outlook here: www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/p...
- The outlooks describe conditions and compare them to previous years to come with an estimation as to whether we can expect "normal" fire activity or elevated fire activity. We can't predict ignitions very well, so conditions it is. Also, not red does not mean green. It just means normal.
- Lots of excited discussions in the wildland fire community about the President's Budget, which consolidates wildland fire programs under one new agency within the Dept. of the Interior. Folks, be cautious. The devil is in the details and the details are few. A thread. 1/
- [Not loaded yet]
- What if the IC is from corporate and has the Secretary and OMB Chief on speed dial? Who decides which values at risk have the highest priority?
- My suspicion is that this new agency, if it is approved and authorized by Congress, will become a shell of what we'd like to see--a minimally staffed DOI office that just issues contracts that privatize the entirety of fire service tasks and responsibilities. 7/
- Maybe I'm wrong, but the point is, don't offer support until we see what it is exactly. Neither the current bill in Congress nor this budget proposal offer enough detail to make such a determination. And the most important thing is not the org chart, but the culture--we must keep that. 8/8
- This is exacerbated by the increase in funding set forth in the proposal, but just because there is money next to an item does not mean that money will be spent like you'd want it spent. 5/
- Most of us thought of such an agency as bringing together USFS and DOI fire efforts in a way that fully supported the mission and allowed our doctrine to fully develop, but still exist within the context of what we know, including the wildland fire culture that has been so long in building. 6/
- Anytime you move large, complex orgs with urgent responsibilities, you must be deliberate and undergo thorough planning. You must consider the relationships within the agencies and with the public, communities, and stakeholders. 3/
- I'm not convinced this has been done with an appreciation of all the complexities and potential outcomes. As of now though, it has been presented in such a way that those in favor of a wildland fire agency can imagine it any way they want, which is leading to far too early support. 4/
- The creation of a wildland fire agency has been considered for decades. There are good reasons in favor & good reasons to not do it as well. I've vacillated through the years, eventually settling on supporting it if done with the care & deliberation necessary to limit unintended consequences. 2/
- [Not loaded yet]
- Double-edged sword. If a 4-Corners high sets up, it spins monsoonal energy through NorCal, the PNW, and over to the Northern Rockies. By the time it reaches those areas, much of the moisture is gone but enough energy remains to drop dry lightning all over the place.
- Just great.
- [Not loaded yet]
- Not dumb. Combo of below avg rainfall since last fall, dry soils, & below avg water level in swamps. Drought will worsen until tropical moisture arrives. Lightning will find receptive fuels & incidents of human starts are quite a bit higher there than in the West.
- [Not loaded yet]
- "On Broadway" closed out this remarkable concert. The best jazz guitarist of his generation, which makes him one of the best all-time. www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4OA...
- [Not loaded yet]
- I'm extremely concerned we will not have enough NWS incident meteorologists to staff all the large fires this year. Not having that expertise available will increase risk for both communities and firefighters while directly affecting strategy and tactics. www.weather.gov/news/imet-ar...
- [Not loaded yet]
- There are more Dems in Texas than any other state except California. I, for one, am not going to allow politics to affect how I think about disaster response. Others may do that, but not me. (This is not a defense of the status quo, but an aspiration.)
- [Not loaded yet]
- Nope. I'm from Texas, have family and friends there. Even if I wasn't a native Texan, ethically, everyone deserves the best efforts of responders, just as responders deserve the best efforts of elected officials who are ultimately responsible. We're not letting any community burn if we can help it.
- Great point. Get your filters and box fans now.
- [Not loaded yet]
- Keep in mind the red means above normal while the white is normal. You'll still get some, especially SW CO. (Of course, it always depends on ignitions.)
- "When in doubt, draw a distinction." 🧵 In grad school one of my professors told me that. Some of the best advice I have ever received. This is a thread about the key distinctions I use in my work. I had a version of it posted at the other joint, which I revised a bit to make this one. Ready? 1/
- Good thread. Thanks for putting it down. Like only a few have, it clarified some of things that had nagged me during my career as a public information officer on disasters. Much appreciated.
- Hey folks, I'll be in Philly on Thursday with nothing to do until a late afternoon flight--where should I eat lunch? I'll start out the morning in Conshohocken but will have a rental. Thanks for your responses.
- [Not loaded yet]
- [Not loaded yet]
- I would add a "10-B" question to the "Should I design this?" part: What problems, paradoxes, quandaries, and uncertainties does it create?
- Firefighters don’t expect electeds to be part of the culture, but it would help if they tried to respect it. This is absolute disrespect and it’s another pro-cancer move by this crew.
- My younger self wouldn't say much when people made ignorant jokes about federal employees or went on an anti-government rant when I told them what I did for a living. I just smiled and moved the discussion along. That changed on this date in 1995. 1/
-
View full threadNeedless to say, it caused them some anxiety at a time when they should have just been doing kid stuff. But I'm not alone. Countless fed families have faced threats & endured snide comments. Now, those in positions of power are doing everything they can to hurt the very idea of public service. 6/
- Yet that idea is stronger than the daily destruction we now see & the reality is that a highly complex society needs a bureaucracy of experts willing to help, including managing risk exposure of all types. It's a lesson we will relearn. I hope what comes out of this is more respected & valued. 7/7
- It also dramatically changed my life-family-job risk analysis. It was clear that there were others who thought like the bomber and there was no way to predict when or where you might find one. Could be in the office, in a public meeting, or on a fire. 4/
- One year, we had an incident where this vague threat became real. I had some tough talks with my wife. Had to chat with the kids & tell them what to do if someone came to the front door trying to make a citizen's arrest and explain why we spent money we didn't have for a security system. 5/
- It had been a long road. As a kid, you're told the "real world" will be different. As a college student, you got the same speech. As a federal worker, there were countless cracks about not being part of the "real world." My world felt pretty damn real that day. 2/
- Afterwards, I was not as accommodating, regardless of my relationship with the other folks in the conversation. The bombing changed how I thought about my career and changed how I thought about myself. It made me think through what it meant to be in public service. It gave me a voice. 3/
- [Not loaded yet]
- Good point. We were already seeing it in response to a number of things, including previous budget cuts. Now, that will be greatly accelerated. Some folks will have the title/responsibility but lack the knowledge & experience once associated with the position. Brittleness = snap, but where/when?
- Seeing a number of fed friends announce their "retirement" on FB today. This is probably not what they wanted, but in every case there was a sense of relief to be out of there. Lots of experience and institutional knowledge in critical areas is now just gone with no replacements in sight.
- Our ability to efficiently identify hazards and effectively manage risk exposure is quickly disappearing. There will be residual expertise amongst the degraded and disappeared products, but changing conditions tend to outstrip our earned expertise. This is foolhardy and destructive.
- NOAA to decommission 14 datasets related to earthquakes, oceans, satellites, agency announces nesdis.noaa.gov/about/docume...
- These are critical for wildland fire potential outlooks, which allow the fire community to plan & prepare. We're about to be driving around with a black-painted windshield and without air bags or seat belts--have your personal evac plan ready.
- Another group that does enormous good, who have a mission more important than self.
- There's also the emergency response side. We've done a great job in the US of making a chaotic & unsafe world seem much more predictable & safe than it really is. So much so that unlike earlier eras, when people die before their time it is now noticed & not just accepted. We're going backwards.
- “Many people don’t realize how high the American quality of life is because of the competent & stable enforcement of regulations, &if that goes away a lot of lives are at risk,” said Steve Cicala… “This affects airplane safety, baby formula safety, the safety of meat, vegetables and packaged foods…”
- [Not loaded yet]
-
View full threadAlso, there will be good people that sign on because the idea of a centralized wildland fire agency has always had adherents (me included). But the devil is in the details, so be careful about what you support. 9/
- For one, how are the vitally important support functions treated? Are they part of the new org? We need an adaptable, strategic organization based in reality, not one based on old assumptions and the false security of more stuff. Under the best of circumstances, it would be a tough pull. 10/10
- Before we create a wildland fire agency, we need to look at many things, including local knowledge, org structure, community involvement, how we set priorities, and so on. It cannot be a one-off, but must be done within the context of the larger emergency management world--we don't just do fires. 7/
- I do not trust these folks to do the work necessary to test current assumptions or make meaningful reforms that will strengthen the wildland fire organization and protect communities. I do expect the real issues will be used to offer a false solution of privatization. 8/
