FWIW, I've never seen a convincing argument that China wants to achieve global hegemony on a level remotely comparable to what we have even now, past peak Unipolar Moment.
"China wants, at the very least, what America has: a regional sphere of influence, and the ability to exclude rivals from it. The question Americans must ask is whether it is vitally important for their country to deny China this ambition."
Great stuff as always from Sam Roggeveen.
Deep Rivalry or Elite Obsession? Washington’s Search for Dominance Over China - War on the Rocks
Dmitri Alperovitch, World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century (PublicAffairs, 2024). Visit the home of any
Why wouldn’t it if it can?
The only way to make sure no rival comes up is to dominate everyone. One does not need to write that down
Sorry for the delayed response. Just because there's a rational argument in favor of something doesn't mean that's what's happening. Besides, the United States is the one trying to prevent China's rise, not the other way around.
Neither is a very convincing argument why China should not try. And it’s actions in the global south and the edges of the north are very consistent with reaching for global domination so far. Why should anyone assume it isn’t trying?
I'm not *assuming* anything. I'm just asking for concrete facts in support of the argument that Beijing is aiming for global hegemony. Perhaps there are. But I would like to see them presented. "Don't assume something is NOT happening" is an odd framing.
You have seen the Chinese actors‘ behaviour around European infrastructure? The way they treated countries in the global south that could not pay their credits for infra? The way the infra is set up and built?
The increasingly bigger exercises around Taiwan? The island disputes? It’s not hidden
Yes to all of the above. And I've covered sub-Saharan African news for a living, so I'm somewhat familiar with Global South media organizations. But what you're telling now is much closer to a coherent argument than the previous Why-Wouldn't-They framing! My question would be.../1
Do these examples, by themselves, suggest a drive for global hegemony? Or are they about access to resources as well as enhancing market position, or maybe even just keeping up with the Americans?
I don't feel strongly one way or the other. But hegemony on the scale Washington is now enjoying stemmed from a combination of chance, contingencies, and enormous commitments. Does Beijing feel confident it could replicate the result? Maybe, but then again, maybe not!
May 8, 2025 15:55
