We noticed the Reverse Repo monster had reached seismic proportions right around the top. From our September 2022 Global Market Perspective:
"the Reverse Repo usage exploded higher last year as, thanks to the Fed’s money printing,
institutions had nowhere else to put their cash."
"However, usage has continued to grow, despite
the Fed beginning to tighten monetary policy. This
reflects the fact that money market funds have been
taking deposits away from the banks, and this is
another barrier to banks’ ability to extend finance in
the economy...
It’s as if the Fed, by its unprecedented,
gargantuan money printing has created a Frankenstein- like monster with the unintended consequence of actually impeding the wheels of finance.
"Elliott wavers might spot a distinct triangle on this chart. That could mean that the current upward thrust in Reverse Repo usage is the last and that a top is nearby.
Apr 30, 2025 18:01When Reverse Repo usage starts to decline, as it will, and begins to return back to historically normal levels of not much above zero, it will be a sure sign that the era of free money is over..."