Brian Schaffner
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- newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post: Noah DeYoung ('25) finds that about 20% of Republicans say Trump should run for a third term even if it is unconstitutional...but the same share of Democrats said Obama should do likewise tufts-pol.medium.com/some-republi...
- new article just published in @plosone.org with former students Thomas Hershewe, Zoe Kava, and Jael Strell who wanted to interrogate whether conservatives really had better mental well-being than liberals dx.plos.org/10.1371/jour...
- another great year of Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books and a great chance to honor graduating seniors. really gonna miss this group!
- our newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post features Anna O'Sullivan considering how while male survey respondents often claim to participate more in politics than women, on-the-ground data often shows something different tufts-pol.medium.com/in-american-...
- did young voters support Trump in 2024? this is a notoriously difficult group to poll but the major election surveys indicate that Trump lost among all but young white men. tufts-pol.medium.com/have-young-v...
- we have just released the call for those interested in purchasing a module for the 2025 CES see here: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee... and if you haven't done so already, make sure to register ASAP for the 2025 CES conference (being held 6/1 - 6/3 at Solitude Mountain Resort): cesconference.byu.edu
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- new Tufts Public Opinion Lab post is up and Rolando Ortega uses @pewresearch.org data to dive into the unique political leanings of religious converts tufts-pol.medium.com/switching-th...
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- I'm not going to say that this is definitely why Democrats lost vote share among Black and Hispanic voters in 2024, but I will say that the coalition of (mostly secular) white Democrats with (mostly religious) Black and Hispanic Democrats definitely has some fault lines
- fwiw, in the just released 2024 CES data: voters who own stocks: 50% Trump, 48% Harris do not own stocks: 50% Trump, 48% Harris
- Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/
- clear evidence in the CES that ideology is beginning to overcome Dem party loyalty among black and hispanic voters: 2016 to 2024 swing in Dem support: conservative black voters: 80% -> 51% moderate hispanic voters: 79% -> 60% conservative hispanic voters: 30% -> 9%
- the CES vote trends app has been updated with 2024 data! explore how a wide variety of different groups voted in 2024 and compare to previous elections. something you'd like to see in the app? we take requests, so let us know! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
- the CES vote trends app has been updated with 2024 data! explore how a wide variety of different groups voted in 2024 and compare to previous elections. something you'd like to see in the app? we take requests, so let us know! cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/
- we have now posted the 2024 Cooperative Election Study common content dataset to the @harvarddataverse.bsky.social! data from 60,000 American adults interviewed before & after the election. thanks to @today.yougov.com & Caroline Soler for getting this data produced & posted doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...
- if you've been waiting for the CES common content data to be released, your wait is nearly over. data should be posted early next week! stay tuned!
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- this is overdue, but Caroline Soler and I wrote an article in the Forum and an accompanying blog post for @goodauth.bsky.social that explores whether Americans still engage in pocketbook voting ... here is a little thread goodauthority.org/news/trumps-...
- now this is a real public service!
- I’ve long used FiveThirtyEight’s interactive “Hack Your Way To Scientific Glory” to illustrate the idea of p-hacking when I teach statistics. But ABC/Disney killed the site earlier this month :( So I made my own with #rstats and Observable and #QuartoPub ! stats.andrewheiss.com/hack-your-way/
- Reposted by Brian SchaffnerA new project to track polls: The NYT will build off the work of the recently shuttered 538, trying to ensure that this resource, which is a foundational tool for many journalists and researchers, remains updated long-term. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/p...
- Jackson Wetherill shows that when people learn more about ranked choice voting support increases, but only among Democrats ... new from the Tufts Public Opinion Lab tufts-pol.medium.com/ranked-choic...
- in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Lucy Morisse-Corsetti uses 911 call data to examine whether domestic violence incidents spike on election night the way they do during football games (they don't) tufts-pol.medium.com/election-nig...
- in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Lucy Belknap ('25) shows that Trump doesn't have any special appeal among working class whites...they were already abandoning the Democratic Party before his emergence tufts-pol.medium.com/who-really-c...
- my favorite category of compliment to get is about my daughter my second favorite is about my graphs
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- i have a new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler on immigration attitudes. an increasing plurality of Americans support both a path to citizenship and increased border security but this group is also becoming increasingly polarized on party lines goodauthority.org/news/surpris...
- conservatives promote school voucher programs, but those programs are not always so popular among rural Republicans. in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Rolando Ortega explores the urban/rural divide when it comes to attitudes on vouchers tufts-pol.medium.com/partisanship...
- in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog, JoJo Martin explores how Democrats and Republicans see political violence and its causes very differently tufts-pol.medium.com/polarized-pe...
- in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab post, Anna O'Sullivan explores how benevolent sexism undermines women in politics. women are much more likely to be viewed as natural caretakers than as natural leaders tufts-pol.medium.com/break-the-gl...
- Democrats have become much supportive of the criminal justice system since 2020, and Miles Kendrick (class of '26) explores what might be driving this in the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post tufts-pol.medium.com/where-have-a...
- in a new post on the CES blog, a team from the Carl Albert Center show that people would much prefer their own party control the redistricting process rather than an independent commission sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...
- in a new @TuftsUniversity Public Opinion Lab post, Noah DeYoung shows that there are very few issue positions a GOP candidate can take that will cause them to lose support among Republican voters tufts-pol.medium.com/the-myth-of-...
- another semester of the Tufts Public Opinion Lab in the books with our traditional end of term lunch!
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- in the latest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post, Abby Sommers reports on an experiment showing that there was probably little Harris could have said to effectively distance herself from the Biden administration. tufts-pol.medium.com/reckoning-wi...
- we tend to end up with romantic partners who share our political views, but is that because liberals and conservatives look for different things from their partners? Lucy Morisse-Corsetti investigates in the latest Tufts Public Opinion Lab post tufts-pol.medium.com/ideology-in-...
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- in 2022 we asked CES respondents a simple question: "What is the most important thing that happened in your life during the past year?" You can scroll through their verbatim responses here. It's a nice way to see the humanity in our data. tinyurl.com/lifeces
- the newest Tufts Public Opinion Lab blog post has Seona Maskara discussing how Democratic efforts to dissuade third party voting in 2024 seemed to work, but considers how that wouldn't be so necessary under ranked choice voting tufts-pol.medium.com/to-shame-or-...
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- polls missed big in 2016, but pollsters spent the past 8 years adapting to those misses and these adjustments worked pretty well in 2024. my new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/pollste...
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- in a week, we'll be sitting down to thanksgiving dinner, & perhaps some uncomfortable conversations. Rachel Kuhn ('26) explores how Republicans & Democrats approach conversations with opposite party family members in very different ways. tufts-pol.medium.com/carving-the-...
- we have lots of great new Tufts Public Opinion Lab content coming your way in the coming weeks! first up, JoJo Martin ('25) explores how the candidates used music during the 2024 campaign and whether any of it mattered tufts-pol.medium.com/ballots-and-...
- on the dog that didn't bark in this election...new @goodauth.bsky.social piece with Caroline Soler goodauthority.org/news/democra...
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- just released: national estimates from CES pre-election interviews with over 70k american adults National LVs (Oct. 1 - 25): Harris: 51% Trump: 47% Dynamic crosstabs: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/prez2024pre/ Release: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativee...
