Peter du Toit
I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 90 days. Content that I want around longer is on my blog.
https://peterdutoit.com
- The IPCC AR6 WGIII report dedicates an entire chapter to demand side emission reduction possibilities. (See www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/w...) Here are the top 10 consumption choices you can make for the greatest impact based on the science: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... Lets look at all 10 🧵/
- Reminder 1: places near seasonal rivers and ice are at severe risk as we continue to heat. Reminder 2: Adaptation has physical limits #ClimateCrisis
- Project 2025 - full steam ahead!
- Tomorrow, west of us, on the Namibian coast - these temperatures are between 10-15°C above normal for this time of year! (Autumn) #ClimateChaos
- When you hear me say we are on a highway to hell (we are) and that 2ºC is now almost certain (it is) it's not because we don't have the technology to stop this (we do) it's because we refuse to hit the emergency brakes. And all the reasons given as to why we can't hit the breaks are all BS.
- "Each new year of data [is] adding to the weight of evidence that the Arctic environment is in a state of profound transition."
- What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic. It affects us all. The Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) has released their Summary Arctic Climate Change Update. Read it: www.amap.no/documents/do... Nobody can later say they weren't warned, again and again.
- This doesn't look good.
- 🌍 Europe is facing an exceptionally dry spring in 2025: 37 out of 38 countries covered by the @EEA have been hit by drought. To help track this growing threat, we’ve launched a new interactive drought map 🗺️— updated monthly & based on near real-time data: water.europa.eu/freshwater/e...
- And just like that, the second largest polluter on earth decides to ignore the science: In order to stand a chance at keeping temperatures below 2ºC global emissions *must* fall by 5.5% in 2025 and then EVERY year thereafter until 2030. We are on a highway to hell.
- “Observations from space of the energy imbalance shows that it is rising much faster than expected, and in 2023 it reached values two times higher than the best estimate from IPCC.” There is that phrase again “𝙢𝙪𝙘𝙝 𝙛𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙” #ClimateCrisis
- The WMO's State of the Climate in Africa 2024 is out today. This is terrifying: "Almost the entire ocean area around the African continent was affected by MHWs of strong, severe or extreme intensity during 2024." library.wmo.int/viewer/69495... #ClimateCrisis
- NEW from JMA: El Niño Outlook (May-Nov 2025) “It is likely (60%) that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist to boreal autumn. [Sep-Nov 2025]” Source: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/prod...
- Something must have changed over on Threads, as this is the first notification I have received from my bridged account 🤔
- ‼️ Pay.attentiont.to.the.instruments
- Valencia Part II These events are going to continue happening. There is no turning back. We are passing through 1.5°C of heating and are on our way 2°C which we will reach in the next 15-20 years. We are not prepared AT ALL for the worsening climate chaos. #ClimateCrisis
- AI is everywhere—and many have asked what it means for our climate future. On Thursday, May 15, the team at @climateinteractive.org will be digging into how AI might influence global climate outcomes, both as a tool for progress and a potential driver of emissions. There will be 2 sessions:
- NEW from the NOAA Climate Prediction Centre: “The current outlook for ENSO is a 74% chance of neutral through the summer. Neutral continues to be the most likely scenario through the winter, although La Niña is a close second. Odds of El Niño next winter are relatively small, at about 15%.”
- This from Insight 7 "Cascading impacts on critical infrastructure [energy distribution, healthcare, food supply and transport] around the world 𝙖𝙧𝙚 𝙖𝙡𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙮 𝙝𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 [at ~1.5ºC of heating] as various hazards are increasing in frequency and severity, and the damages are significant." #ClimateCrisis
- Official confirmation of April ERA5 data: “1.51°C warmer than an estimate of the pre-industrial April average for 1850-1900.” “April 2025 was the 21st month in a 22-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
- Take a look at this April rainfall data for South Africa. Many places exceeded their normal rainfall by 400% and more. This all taking place at ~1.5°C of heating what happens when we cross 2°C? We know the answer to this question! How much “getting ready” are you witnessing on a grand scale? 🤷🏻
- Important reporting here. Adaptation has limits. Soft limits hit first, then hard limits follow. When you hit hard limits there is only one option left. Retreat. We will see this play out everywhere as we continue to heat. #ClimateCrisis
- What’s new 🙄: “Many actors have set targets for lowering methane emissions by 2030. Yet so far, few countries or companies have formulated real implementation plans for these commitments, and even fewer have demonstrated verifiable emissions reductions.” We are firmly on track to pass 2°C
- Our Global Methane Tracker 2025 is out! It shows methane data & transparency are continuing to improve But methane emissions remain stubbornly high - even though measures to tackle them are widely available and often very cost-effective The report 👉 iea.li/4cZNOJC
